There are few remaining desktop ad formats that will see significant incremental increases in ad spending, notably branding-friendly categories like sponsorships and video.
Virtually all the spending growth going to search, banners and rich media ad formats, however, will go toward the mobile channel. Mobile search advertising spending will have grown 118.8% in 2013; mobile banner ad spending will have increased 155.22%; and mobile rich media ad growth will hit 95.89% in 2013, per estimates.
The same formats seeing such robust growth on mobile will languish on the desktop, however, as advertisers shift more dollars to target smartphone- and tablet-toting shoppers. search spending is expected to be down 1.4% this year when the mobile component is removed, while display will grow a sluggish 3.8%, buoyed by double-digit growth in sponsorship and video spending, along with lead generation the main bright spots for desktop-based digital ads.
2013 may be the last year of triple-digit growth for mobile display, search and other formats, but the outlook is optimistic, with consumers continuing to pick up smartphones and tablets in droves, and publishers like YouTube, Instagram and Twitter adding more—and more lucrative—ad products to their mobile offerings.
The forecasts are based on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population along with company, product, and demographic specific trends, as well as trends in behaviors. Quantitative and qualitative data is analyzed from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.