The local media advertising market is set to grow at a 2.8% compound annual rate from 2012 through 2017, with traditional media gradually playing less of a role over the coming years, says BIA/Kelsey in its latest market forecast. The researchers estimate the market’s size to be $132.9 billion this year, only a slight rise from last year’s $132 billion, due to a contraction in traditional media revenues. Things are expected to pick up again next year, spurred by online and digital media growth and a steadier year on the traditional media side.
In fact, online and digital media revenues are projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 14% through 2017, compared to a -0.3% annual rate for traditional media. By 2017, online and digital media revenues are forecast to have doubled, from $23.1 billion last year to $44.5 billion, a more bullish estimate than the researchers’ previous one from March, which projected revenues to be $41.1 billion in 2017. Meanwhile, traditional media will accounting for $107 billion in revenues in 2017, down slightly from last year’s $108.9 billion. In terms of revenue shares, that translates to traditional media falling from 82.5% share of the local ad market last year to 70.6% share in 2017.
BIA/Kelsey just recently released its estimates of market shares by media channel for this year, allowing for a comparison between this year’s estimates and the 2017 forecasts in this latest report.
Not surprisingly, online and interactive media will see a significant rise in share, from 8.6% this year to 11.7% in 2017. But growth in mobile will be more dramatic, from a fractional 1.7% share of local media advertising dollars this year all the way to 7.1% in 2017.
Newspapers will see the biggest drop, from an estimated 16.1% share of revenues this year to 11.5% in 2017, of which slightly more than one-fifth will be online. TV is expected to actually slightly increase its share of local ad revenues, from 14.9% to 15.3%, while radio and magazines will see some declines.